The best way to stop Trump in 2024 is to show how normal he is.

Millions of his voters wanted him to fundamentally shift the course of America and offer them a new life. He didn’t come close.

I have a poor track record with predictions, but something I am quite confident of is that between now and February 2024 (the date of the Iowa Caucus), the internet will be awash with speculation about whether Donald Trump will run again. For brevity, I’m not adding to this discourse. I’m simply following Michael Wolff’s lead and assuming he is.

In both 2016 and 2020, the margin of victory via the electoral college was much tighter than the popular vote implied. In 2024, the margin of error for Democrats will be so incredibly small and the consequences of getting it wrong so terrifyingly large. Only this time Trump’s party will have an even greater advantage partly as a result of the common incumbency effect, and more worryingly, due to the swath of voter restriction laws currently being sped through state legislatures.

So far the Democrats’ strategy to combat this seems shaky, to say the least: ‘Do good things and trust voters will repay your competence’, is remarkably noble, but I fear naïve in the faith in places on the rationality of voters. Also, on the unfair expectation…