Will the SCOTUS vacancy stop Biden’s polling slump?

The confirmation is more important than the announcement

There is plenty of speculation about how Biden’s replacement for Justice Breyer will be received in her Senate hearing. Last month, the president formally nominated Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, fulfilling a responsibility endowed to his predecessor three times and the president who he served under, twice.

I don’t want to add the comment around Judge Jackson, rather, I want to look at how the previous five appointments have affected the sitting president’s polling and see whether any historical precedent can give Biden hope for an improvement in his poll numbers.

That’s because, despite a small uptake in approval ratings in the last two weeks, he has been underwater since early September 2021. Some have speculated that this is due to his State of the Union address and possibly the crisis in Ukraine. In the first week of March, a POLITICO/Morning Consult put Biden 49/51 approve/disapprove. Still underwater, but four points better than the week before, and nine points better than three weeks before. Moreover, throughout January, several polls put his approval in the late 30s. This is a micro-fraction ahead of where Trump was but significantly worse than all other post-War Presidents.