What if the midterm polls are as wrong as they were in 2020?

The last few months have looked brighter for Democrats, but no one trusts polls anymore, right?

Last week I wrote about the close Senate races Democrats have a reasonable chance of winning. I concluded these are Georgia (Warnock vs. Walker), Wisconsin (Johnson vs. Barnes), Nevada (Cortez Masto vs. Laxalt), Ohio (Vance vs. Ryan), Pennsylvania (Oz vs. Fetterman), Arizona (Kelly vs. Masters). Although a recent episode of Hacks on Tap has put New Hampshire and even Colorado on the agenda. Albeit it, that would be an exceptional night for Republicans. Which looks unlikely right now.

Individual candidates such as Ryan and Fetterman have clearly led strong campaigns. Both playing to more traditional working-class Democrat voter, with a modern twist (see Fetterman’s support marijuana legalisation). Both have relatively high name recognition which is in part due to the fact that they are both up against terrible Republican opponents who have attracted national attention. Accordingly, both are performing well above Biden’s favourability in their states (Ohio and Penn. Biden is only about 40% favourable).

However, others, like Kelly and Warnock— who are inexperienced in the Senate (through no fault of their own)— or Cortez Masto who lacks…