Trump’s taste for underdog status will see him explore Democrat strongholds.

Don’t sleep on states like Nevada and Minnesota. They allow Trump to play offence as an underdog.

Along the scale of probable election outcomes, a Biden landslide might be at one end. Meaning he takes not only all the swing states, but also some more ambitious targets such as Georgia, Ohio, and maybe even Texas. On the other end of that scale, I would argue, is a narrow Trump victory, like in 2016 when he took Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by an average vote margin of just 0.57%.

The conventional wisdom, perhaps spanning the last 12–18 months, has been that there are six, real, genuine swing states in play: the three aforementioned upper midwest states, as well as Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina.

However, there is some indication that Team Trump are not seeking to simply repeat their performance, where they won all of those six of those states. Rather, they are looking at other states in an attempt to clear the magic 270. Assessing the current data, this could make sense. With the exception of Pennsylvania — where Biden leads by just 4% — Trump trails in Michigan and Wisconsin by the same numbers as he does nationally — about 7%. The polls are similar in Arizona but tighter in North…