Three Things a Vice President Needs to Have.

Competence, compassion, and cultural. Biden needs to consider all three in his VP pick.

There is little evidence to suggest the Vice President makes a significant difference in an election. Recent research by Christopher Devine and Kyle Kopko suggests “vice-presidential nominees do not have home state or regional effects, and don’t seem to help attract affiliated social groups like women”.

Despite this, some argue Amy Klobuchar’s bipartisan history and appeal in the Midwest makes her a good pick. Gretchen Whitmer for similar reasons, only she has executive experience too. Others say that Kamala Harris or Val Demings would be able to energise the African American vote. Abrams bringing Georgia in to play? Elizabeth Warren to appeal to the left? These arguments are being well discussed at the moment.

We know Biden will nominate a woman, which limits the field of past evidence somewhat. As Devine and Kyle point out, historically, that has had little impact. At best, see Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, at worst, see Sarah Palin in 2008. Both lost handsomely.

Biden would be wrong to make a decision based on hypotheticals about what states of groups of voters he thinks his partner might help him with. Instead, he should focus on three core…