The inflated importance of Iowa will end. Here’s why.

The Hawkeye State will try and hang on, but it’s not produced an important result for over a decade.

Despite the Trump administration’s best efforts — including their latest attempt to re-write history — America is changing. Indeed, Trump himself is the best example of that. The country has gone from its first African American president directly into one who inspires white supremacist murder. There is, perhaps, no greater change than that.

As such, previous certainties have collapsed and conventional wisdom no longer provides the steer which political nerds crave, leaving even the most sacrosanct institutions in peril.

What could this mean for 2020?

Arguably the most consistent element of any primary season over the last four decades — both for Democrat and Republican — has been the Iowa Caucus. The official start of the nomination process. Whether it propels hitherto unknown candidates into the fast lane (a la Barack Obama 2008), whether it solidifies someone as a front-runner, of whether it allows a candidate to launch surprise attacks to keep their skin in the game (a la Ted Cruz 2016), Iowa flexes its power early; far beyond what it’s mere 6 electoral votes in November imply.