It’s (not just) the economy, stupid!

Even if the economy does improve, Trump needs to focus his efforts on other key indicators.

It’s not looking good for Trump. Poll after poll puts him behind Biden both nationally and in the swing states. Even in states that he will comfortably carry his numbers are down. The White House is also reported to be very worried about the Senate. The likelihood is that if Trump loses Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina, then the Senate seats fall to the Democrats too.

And they should be worried. Unemployment is up near 15%, 100,000 Americans have died of Coronavirus, while his response has been the source of international condemnation. We are now less than six months away from an election and the President is desperately trying to cling onto a small and dwindling base. White evangelicals and the elderly are growing weary of him, with suburban votes and women continuing their move away from the Republican party.

There is evidence his campaign recognises this. They are spending money in the three upper-Midwestern states the President narrowly won four years ago, while spending more in Florida than ‘any other state’. In other words all defensive moves. No New Hampshire, Minnesota, or New Mexico in sight.