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I tried the Cook Political Report’s Demographic Swingometer
It produced some pretty scary results
Everyone has heard of the website 270 to win. If you haven’t, you can check it out HERE. It’s a quick and easy way to make electoral college maps.
The Cook Political Report have taken this to the next level and developed a free to use tool where you can change the voting behaviours — including party ID and turnout — of various demographic groups and see the impact this will have on certain states on the electoral map. You can access that HERE.
I spent some time sifting through what I would refer to as “possibilities, not probabilities”. Or, in other words, scenarios that I could realistically see happening on any given day, but not necessarily ones that I would be willing to bet my own money on.
Feel free to disagree with any of my assumptions, but also note that I’m absolutely not saying any of the below outcomes will definitely happen, just that they are broadly within the realms of possibility.
A disclaimer:
The starting point of this tool is, and I quote, “the results of the previous election, adjusted for demographic change since 2016”.
