Clear these three hurdles and Trump locks up the nomination

I think there are three things which that could happen that result in Donald Trump not becoming the GOP nominee next year, two of which don’t involve the voters at all. While the third is so unlikely, it seems like a waste to even write about.

Look away if you don’t have the appetite for morbid predictions, but the first thing that could happen really is the most pragmatic one. He could die. Despite claiming to be 6'3" and 215lbs — the exact dimensions as Lamar Jackson, the quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens — that is palpably not the true. He is approaching 80 years of age and likely more in the range of 250lbs. He golfs, and clearly has an intense schedule, but he doesn’t exactly scream fit and healthy, either. If he did sadly pass, I don’t doubt some of his supporters would simply write his name into the ballot box, but one can’t help but conclude that death really would impact his chances of becoming the nominee.

The second possibility is that he goes to jail. At the time of writing, I still think this is unlikely. Not because there aren’t strong cases against him, rather, it is a timing issue. Even if a trial begins in early 2024, Trump will probably (not certainty) have a few primary wins under his belt by that point. But mid-2024 could see a stand-off. Trump may well be the presumptive nominee, while facing…